According to the latest industry report from TASS on June 2, 2026, since the start of this year's injection season, the progress of gas injection into European storage facilities has slowed down significantly. In May, the injection volume fell by 13% year-on-year, and the overall reserve scale has dropped to the lowest level in the past five years, highlighting the increasing pressure on energy supply this winter. Industry analysis pointed out that after the escalation of the Middle East conflict, competition for available liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the global market has intensified, and Asian buyers have grabbed LNG at a premium, pushing up fuel prices and directly squeezing Europe's LNG import space. Data shows that in May, the total LNG inflow into the EU gas transmission system from terminals was about 11.65 billion cubic meters, down 8% from April and 9.5% lower than May 2025. Although the cumulative LNG inflow in Europe from January to May this year still remained at a record high of 62.5 billion cubic meters, up 5% year-on-year, the sharp decline in May imports has sounded the alarm for this winter's supply guarantee.

To fill the supply gap, Europe is accelerating the expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor. This 3,500-kilometer integrated pipeline system connecting the Caspian Sea to Southern Europe has now become Europe's most operationally important non-Russian gas route. Latest operating data shows that in the first four months of 2026, Azerbaijan has transported 3.72 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe through the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline alone. Currently, ten EU countries get stable gas supply from Azerbaijan, but the existing pipeline capacity can no longer meet Europe's growing demand, and capacity limitation has become the most prominent challenge in the current project promotion. SOCAR completed the acquisition of Italiana Petroli for $3.27 billion in May this year, which further consolidated its layout in the European gas terminal market. The industry expects more expansion investment to land in the future to ease Europe's tight supply situation.

The implementation of the EU maritime carbon tariff is also pushing up the cost of LNG imports. According to the new analysis from Wood Mackenzie, EU maritime carbon costs will reach US$1,256 per tonne by 2030, and the global LNG carrier fleet will face obvious bifurcation. Modern vessels fitted with ME-GI engines have lower methane slip and far lower carbon compliance costs than the market average; while older steam turbine and DFDE vessels will continue to accumulate carbon emission costs and gradually lose commercial competitiveness. This change will further push up the overall cost of LNG imports in Europe and aggravate the current tension in the gas supply market.